In Australia, they say the Melbourne Cup stops a nation albeit even if it is just a glorified handicap. The Grand National, on the other hand, genuinely does stop a nation, if not nations. From housewives to experts to the dogs on the street, people from all walks of life will have a bet on the race. A four and a half mile stamina sapping slog over thirty fences at Aintree. It’s a test of endurance and jumping ability like none other in the equine world. While we’ll try and guide you to the winners, throwing a dart at the racecard with all the accuracy of Ken Doherty on the final black for a 147 would prove more effective. (NB one of the worst misses since Ray Parlour’s wife). If you fancy something but the big price scares you, all you have to do is remember the story of 100/1 shot Foinavon in 1966. Anything can happen in the race.
First run in 1836, the Grand National has become known as the greatest steeplechase in the world. This year’s renewal will be no different and the quality of the field is exemplary. Conditions and final declarations will play a major part in deciding who to back, but there are significant pointers already, not least Paul Nicholls’ claim that his principal charge My Will is in “great shape and we have had this race in mind for 18 months” while he also adds “He jumps and travels and has a touch of class.” A ringing endorsement for the current favourite that is probably giving most an ear ache. However, since 1982 there have only been 4 winning outright favourites of the race. Funnily enough, they all returned a starting price of 7/1. Last year’s joint-fav Comply or Die was also sent off at the same SP. Many people use peculiar logic to pick a winner, so deciding to back My Will if he touches sevens is as good as any.
With the removal of lat year’s runner up King John’s Castle (wouldn’t have won anyway as only two greys have ever won the race), the gambled on War of Attrition’s claims have significantly improved. Irish punters have backed the 2006 Gold Cup winner to land the spoils in Liverpool on the 5th of April and his trainer Mouse Morris is one of the shrewdest trainers in the business. He has bags of stamina but will need to stay out of trouble, like the rest of them. He’s a strong each way claim given the confidence behind him. Apart from Hedgehunter in 2005, no horse since 1984 has carried more than 11 stone to victory. Michael O’Leary’s 10 year old gelding, even after the final declaration stage will certainly carry over 11 stone.
The JP McManus owned Butlers Cabin was seen as AP McCoy’s best chance to win his first Grand National in 2008. Like Champion jockeys before him John Francome and Peter Scudamore, AP, who rode his 3,000th winner this year, is a Grand National virgin. And there’s not too many of them around Liverpool, especially that weekend. McCoy has yet to decide whether he’ll go with the desperately unlucky Cabin who exited at Becher’s Brook in 2008 or the French bred L’ami.
Having won the Becher Chase in November, Black Apalachi is proven over the course’s stiff fences and stamina shouldn’t be a problem for the Irish trained gelding. Dessie Hughes’s 10 year old is off a good mark and will be a popular Irish winner if can cross the line in front.
You’re sure to hear the word Becher or Becher’s Brook during Grand National coverage so in case you’re wondering, the sixth and 22nd fence of the circuit were renamed Becher’s Brook after Captain Becher was unseated from leader Conrad during the first National at the big ditch and crawled into the brook for safety. He is reported to have said that he “never knew water tasted so foul without whiskey in it”.
Rambling Minster has proven stamina over long distances and has won well most recently at Cheltenham in January where he powered up the famous Prestbury Park hill. The 11 year old would like good ground and as long as Mother Nature doesn’t saturate the course the Keith Reveley trained horse has big chance.
Six years ago a small trainer from Cork saddled the winner of the national. Jimmy Mangan will bid to repeat the achievements of Monty’s Pass with 10 year old Himalayan Trail, winner of the 2008 Midlands National at Uttoxeter. He’s been exuding confidence in the media and is a massive price to win.
David Pipe really stepped out of his father’s shadow when winning the race last year with the well supported Comply or Die. He’ll need to emulate the likes of Reynoldstown, The Colonel and the legend Red Rum if he’s win the race for a second consecutive year. Timmy Murphy gave the horse an impervious ride last year and kept him out of trouble to win by a comfortable four lengths. Some useless information, Red Rum spelled backwards is Murder. If the handicapper hasn’t caught up with him and barring a Devon Loch moment, the David Johnson owned horse could be a serious contender again.
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